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Backtesting & Strategy Development

OddsMaker Backtesting Guide

OddsMaker is Trade Ideas' backtesting engine that lets you test alert and strategy configurations against historical intraday data to estimate win rate, profit, and drawdown before running scans live.

What Is OddsMaker and What Does It Test?

OddsMaker replays historical market data against Trade Ideas alert and strategy definitions you already use for live scanning. Instead of guessing whether a gap-and-go or momentum alert would have worked, you measure outcomes over months or years of tick and bar history. Tests respect session boundaries, volume conditions, and custom formulas in your strategy window. Output includes trade statistics, equity curves, and distributions traders need before enabling alerts on real capital. It bridges scanning and strategy development inside one platform.

OddsMaker tests the alerts you would actually run—alignment between backtest and live workflow is the main advantage.

How Do You Set Up a Strategy for OddsMaker?

Build or duplicate a Strategy in Trade Ideas with clear entry conditions—price, relative volume, time of day, custom math. Define exit assumptions OddsMaker supports: hold period, profit target, stop percent, or session close. Choose universe: watchlist, index components, or broad NASDAQ and NYSE filters. Select date range with enough alerts—sparse strategies need longer history. Configure costs if available. Name and version the strategy before running so results map to live deployment. Ambiguous strategy windows produce ambiguous backtests.

Simplify entry logic until alert count is sufficient—ultra-tight filters may yield too few trades to judge.

How Do You Run a Backtest and Read Results?

Launch OddsMaker from the strategy context, confirm parameters, and run. Review alert count first—too few trades means inconclusive. Examine win rate, average gain and loss, profit factor, max drawdown, and consecutive losers. Open individual alert charts—verify signals match your mental model. Compare subperiods if tool allows: trending versus choppy months. Export or screenshot summary for trading plan appendix. First run is debugging; second run after fixing obvious issues is candidate evaluation.

Click through at least ten random alerts on the chart—visual inspection catches misconfigured time filters quickly.

What OddsMaker Limitations Should You Remember?

Modeled exits may differ from your live discretion. Slippage on fast small caps can exceed assumptions. Historical data depth varies by symbol and subscription. Strategies heavy on discretion outside the window are not fully captured. OddsMaker validates alert edge under defined exit rules—it does not replace forward paper trading. Combine with KPI tracking once live. Re-run after material strategy edits or market regime shifts.

Forward-test the top OddsMaker result with paper alerts before enabling audible realtime alerts.

How Do You Go From OddsMaker Results to Live Scanning?

Set pass criteria: minimum alerts, profit factor, drawdown tolerance. If pass, enable strategy in simulation or paper alerts for thirty sessions. Log live versus OddsMaker slippage and skip rate. If aligned, deploy real-time with size per trading plan. If diverge, refine exit rules or filters and re-run OddsMaker version two. Document version linkage between OddsMaker report and live strategy name. OddsMaker is gate in Trade Ideas workflow—not the final word, but a rigorous one.

Store OddsMaker run date and parameters in your trading plan next to the live strategy name for auditability.

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